Financial Modelling

Financial Modelling

A Financial Model is a tool used to forecast a business’ financial performance into the future based on historical data and assumptions. At Anup N. Amatya & Associates, professional Financial, Business & Management Consultants, we help our clients to develop appropriate Financial Models to forecast future outcomes with alternate business strategies.

 Hierarchy of financial modelling

Three Statement ModelIncome Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement

DCF Analysis – Discounted cash flow analysis to value a business

Scenario Analysis – Estimate changes in the value of a business in different possible scenarios

Sensitivity AnalysisEvaluate how sensitive investment is to changes in drivers

M&A AnalysisEvaluate the attractiveness of potential merger, acquisition or divestiture

Capital RaisingAnalyze the pro forma impact of raising debt or equity

LBO AnalysisDetermine how much leverage can be used to purchase a company

Good models clearly separate inputs, processing, and outputs

Inputs:  

  • Clearly identified
  • Should only ever be entered once

Processing:

  • Processing should be transparent
  • Broken down into simple steps
  • Easy to follow

Outputs:

  • Quickly accessible
Model Inputs

Objectives:

  • Accurate
  • Reasonable data ranges
  • Easy to use
  • Easy to understand
  • Easy to update data

Achieving Objectives:

  • Enter each data once
  • Use colour to differentiate inputs with outputs
  • Use data validation & Conditional formatting
  • Use comments
Model Processing

Objectives:

  • Easy to maintain
  • Accurate processing
  • Transparency

Achieving Objectives:

  • Break down complex calculations
  • Use comments and annotations
  • Use formatting & Calculate final figures for the output reports
 Model Outputs

Objectives:

  • Provide key results to aid decision-making
  • Easy to understand
  • Unambiguous

Achieving Objectives:

  • Make outputs modular
  • Consider creating a summary section with only the most important key model outputs

Financial forecasting framework (for a Three Statement
Financial Model)

Assumptions & drivers – Historical ratios and figures which drive the forecast

Income statement – Summarizes the company’s profit and loss

Balance sheet – Displays the company’s assets, liabilities and
shareholders’ equity

Cash flow statement – Reports the cash generated and spent by a company

Supporting schedules –Breaks down longer calculations such as PP&E and debt
schedule

Illustrations:

Anup N. Amatya & Associates, professional Financial, Business & Management Consultants

Author: Anup Narsingh Amatya